Wednesday, July 30, 2014

How do I Know When to Fold-'em in Texas Hold-'em?


You don't really need to know anything about Probability and Statistics for construction (at least I don't think you do). So why do I include the US Navy Probability and Statistics courses? It's cool stuff to know. Understanding basic probability theory helps you understand life. To have a basic grasp of how random events happen will allow you to better assess risks and rewards. And it helps your poker game! You can check out some teaching about probability at the US Navy Pre-Calculus and Probability course. Statistics, on the other hand, is the math that helps you understand large bunches of information. We use statistics to help us make informed decisions. A construction company, as an example, may be concerned with improving productivity for its trades people. As various bits of information is analyzed, perhaps they find that the absenteeism on Fridays is significantly higher than any other day. Statistics can be used to help understand how much of that absenteeism is just random or if it's a significant finding. Say the statistics indicate a substantially higher absenteeism on Fridays, then the company looks for causes. The employees get their paychecks on Thursday afternoons. So now there is a management choice to be made. Many construction companies use quality improvement programs that utilize statistics. If a company wants to improve results, they must understand what's really going on in their day to day processes. To understand how processes are truly working, we need to measure things, then try to figure out what is significant. Statistics help us understand what is really going on. Some good teaching on statistics can be found in the US Navy Introduction to Statistics course.

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